Normalcy Bias

Misconception vs. Truth

Misconception:
Your fight-or-flight instincts kick in and you panic when disaster strikes.

Truth:
You often become abnormally calm and pretend everything is normal in a crisis.

Normalcy Bias Explained

  • Initial Reaction: When faced with a new situation, you compare it to what is familiar and normal for you. This leads to interpreting alarming situations as part of the normal routine.
  • Case Study: In 1999, despite advance warnings of a tornado with winds reaching 320 mph, many Oklahoma residents did not seek shelter, leading to significant devastation.

Psychological Insights

  • Contagion Effect: Mark Svenvold observed that normalcy bias can spread among people, as they attempt to maintain calm by shaming those who react to danger.

  • Stages of Reaction: Researchers Mikami and Ikeda outlined that in a disaster, most people:

    1. Initially interpret the situation based on familiar context.
    2. Underestimate the severity.
    3. Seek information from trusted sources and peers.
    4. Move to contact family.
    5. Prepare to evacuate or seek shelter.
    6. Finally, take action.

Real-life Examples

  • 1977 Pan Am and KLM Planes Collision: Survivors of the Tenerife plane disaster recounted how many passengers remained passive during critical moments, failing to escape even when it was possible.
  • 9/11 and Other Disasters: Survivors often engaged in normal routines, like collecting belongings or shutting down computers, rather than immediately evacuating.

Factors Influencing Survival

  • Those who survive crises often have prior experience or practice, which reduces the deliberation needed during the actual event.
  • Preparedness: Familiarity with emergency procedures, drills, and mental rehearsal can streamline the brain's response process, involving cognition, perception, comprehension, decision, implementation, and movement.

Normalcy Bias and Response to Disaster

  • Misinterpretation of Danger: Normalcy bias prevents recognizing the severity of a situation, leading to inaction.
  • Fear Bradycardia vs. Normalcy Bias: Normalcy bias is distinct from fear bradycardia, where individuals freeze instinctively. It is more about self-soothing through denial of the abnormal.

Impact on Larger Scales

  • Global Issues: Normalcy bias is evident in responses to global climate change, peak oil, and other complex events where the full impact is hard to imagine.
  • Information Overload: Frequent false alarms, like with Y2K or overhyped diseases, contribute to a global scale normalcy bias, making it difficult to discern when to genuinely act.

Strategies for Overcoming Normalcy Bias

  • Repetition and constant reinforcement of warnings and instructions can create a new normal, prompting quicker and more effective actions in emergencies.
  • Preparedness Programs: Implementing and practicing safety drills can help mitigate the effects of normalcy bias.